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World economics and Tube & Pipe Industry
USA. The topic for some times has been what Alan Greenspan did or didn't say about the interest rates in US. What ever it was, several analyst are now predicting that the interest will rise in the near future. Generally speaking, and as I understand, the economy growth in US remains still good (FED's prediction 3.5% in 1999) and the only concern is the overheating. What this all effects to Tube and Pipe industry? My best guess is that no big changes in the near future. One matter is interesting though, US $ rate vs Euro - plenty of changes during last weeks.
Europe. More positive signals just before holiday season started in the middle Europe. For example Italy. The GDP growth of first-quarter of 1999 was stronger than expected (0.2% from the 4:th quarter of -98 and 0.9% from year before). Second quarter growth is likely to be faster. Foreign growth seems to pick up Italy's foreign sector gradually. It is expected that 1999 GDP growth to be 1.3% and 2.2% for year 2000.
Another example UK. The interest rate cuts since last October has been 2.5% and the figures are now at a 22-year low of 5% and yet, the economy rebounding strongly. (However, this may eventually lead to higher interest rates, even though the rates are twice those in euro zone). On the second quarter -99 the GDP rose 0.5% from the 1:st quarter and the growth from a year ago is now 1.2%. For year 2001 the growth is expected to be near 3%. Domestic demand has remained strong and the business confidence is at the highest level in 1.5 years. Therefore, it's no wonder why the activity in Italy and UK has been good within Tube and Pipe industry during the second quarter of 1999. I have not seen
any particular figures from France lately, but the recent development has been clearly positive there as well. Generally in Europe there is a positive attitude and growth at the moment- not fast but steady growth anyway. I have been sensing this same, positive development also within Tube and pipe industry in Europe. This seems to affect to the interest already - the rates have been increasing slightly in many European countries.
Asia. The worst part of the Asian recession started about two years ago. The good sign is now that the speed and strength of the recovery has surprised and delighted not just Asians but the world. For our industry that is a matter to be realized by now. This concerns not only Asian Industries, but also Industries globally - after all - Tube and Pipe industry is truly global. However, we must keep in mind that the Financial Institutions in most Asian countries remains still really weak. Just to mention about Daewoo's big financial problem in Korea. Situation is almost equal in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Though, the good thing is that Asia went to crisis with low public dept, meaning, that it's taxpayers can support bad banks.
TubeNet Mailinglist /Marketplace
TubeNet Mailing list is going through a major changes. It became obvious for me that a single list will not satisfy diverse readership: While some readers are mainly interested in the business point of view, the others are keen in technical discussion. For this reason there will be two separate mailing lists in the future. I will be notifying all subscribers about this change when it is technically ready.
Mirror site in Asia.
TubeNet started with server in Finland 4 years ago. 1998 the server in USA was introduced. Now, Asia is coming strongly into the picture and in order to provide with a better service for the readership there, I will soon establish a mirror site in this region as well. This brings also more reliability for all readers - if one server goes down for one reason or another, there are still two available.
As always, feel free to send me your own opinions and observations. I will never
release names form commentators. What we need
is more communication.
See you around,
Juha Haapala
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